{"id":3349,"date":"2021-03-09T01:02:52","date_gmt":"2021-03-09T01:02:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/?p=3349"},"modified":"2021-03-09T01:04:16","modified_gmt":"2021-03-09T01:04:16","slug":"nhung-dieu-nen-biet-ve-moi-lien-quan-lam-phat-va-chung-khoan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/?p=3349","title":{"rendered":"M\u1ed0I LI\u00caN GI\u1eeeA QUAN L\u1ea0M PH\u00c1T V\u00c0 TH\u1eca TR\u01af\u1edcNG CH\u1ee8NG KHO\u00c1N"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u1ede nh\u1eefng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e2u kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, th\u1eadt kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u1edb l\u1ea1i, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. Nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta mu\u1ed1n qu\u00ean \u0111i c\u0169ng kh\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0 Zimbabwe ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n. N\u0103m 2008, qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ee9ng ch\u1ecbu t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00ean t\u1edbi h\u00e0ng tri\u1ec7u ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m. Gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i ch\u1ec9 sau v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n, sau \u0111\u00f3 r\u00fat xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n v\u00e0i ng\u00e0y. Ti\u1ec1n gi\u1ea5y ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ec3 trang tr\u00ed. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm \u0111\u1ebfn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u00edch tr\u1eef gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. M\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mua v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 Hai \u1edf Zimbabwe c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1n ngay v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 S\u00e1u. S\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n Harare th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1eb3ng kh\u00e1c n\u00e0o m\u00e1y ATM.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t h\u00e0ng r\u00e0o t\u1ed1t trong vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t.\u00a0K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kinh doanh ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng; v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u00f3. Trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n l\u00e0 “h\u1ea7m tr\u00fa \u1ea9n” duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 \u1edf Iran. Qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i t\u1ed1t, v\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng mu\u1ed1n b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 m\u00ecnh kh\u1ecfi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. H\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 g\u1eedi ti\u1ec1n \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, v\u00ec c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ngh\u00e8o, c\u00f2n \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc gi\u00e0u, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1ea1i \u0111au \u0111\u1ea7u ki\u1ec3u kh\u00e1c.<\/span><\/p>\n

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M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eaft, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p, nh\u01b0ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, n\u00f3 v\u1eabn c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean sau n\u00e0y. N\u1ebfu chuy\u1ec7n \u0111\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc gi\u00e0u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 \u1edf Iran, hay Zimbabwe.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 hai v\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1eeba r\u1ed3i. C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t h\u00e0ng r\u00e0o ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00e1 t\u1ed1t, nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ec9 trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. C\u00f2n trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c chi\u1ec1u. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu gi\u1ea3m, v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110\u00fang l\u00e0 c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00fap nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i.\u00a0Trong ni\u00ean gi\u00e1m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Credit Suisse, c\u00e1c t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh v\u00e0 Mike Staunton \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 mang l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh cao h\u01a1n 5,2% so v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1900.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u1eabn c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. M\u1ed9t b\u00e0i b\u00e1o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ebft b\u1edfi Franco\u00a0Modigliani<\/b>\u00a0v\u00e0 Richard\u00a0Cohn<\/b>\u00a0v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1979 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng “\u1ea3o gi\u00e1c ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7” (*) (money illusion): l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng khi\u1ebfn cho l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed5 ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0o tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu thay v\u00ec c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu (v\u00ec cho r\u1eb1ng l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t danh ngh\u0129a c\u1ee7a tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu s\u1ebd t\u0103ng, \u0111\u00e1ng ra, h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c), khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu gi\u1ea3m.<\/span><\/p>\n

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(*) Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft\u00a0\u1ea3o gi\u00e1c ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7<\/b>\u00a0cho r\u1eb1ng r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n theo gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb danh ngh\u0129a, m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng sau khi t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai s\u1ebd c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n h\u00f4m nay.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t danh ngh\u0129a \u0111i 2% trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n v\u1eadt gi\u00e1 chung kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i, th\u00ec nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ebd nh\u1eadn ra ngay. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t danh ngh\u0129a th\u00eam 2% trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1edbi 4% th\u00ec nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng th\u1ea5y l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh b\u1ecb gi\u1ea3m.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

C\u00e1c l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kh\u00e1c cho r\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf qu\u00e1 n\u00f3ng, nhi\u1ec1u b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n, n\u00ean \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 tr\u1edf \u0111i, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n. C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng tr\u1ea3 m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 cao h\u01a1n bao gi\u1edd h\u1ebft cho m\u1ed9t d\u00f2ng thu nh\u1eadp trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch b\u1edfi hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng\u00a0Modigliani-Cohn<\/b>\u00a0ng\u01b0\u1ee3c, v\u00ec l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu danh ngh\u0129a gi\u1ea3m, n\u00ean gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng. Nh\u01b0ng, c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n nh\u1edb r\u1eb1ng, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u0169ng gi\u1ea3m theo \u0111\u00f3. M\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea3i th\u1ea5p th\u00ec l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t m\u1edbi \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ed1t cho gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. Nh\u01b0ng th\u1eadt sai l\u1ea7m khi tin r\u1eb1ng danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u01afU T\u1ea6M<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u1ede nh\u1eefng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e2u kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, th\u1eadt kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u1edb l\u1ea1i, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. Nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta mu\u1ed1n qu\u00ean \u0111i c\u0169ng kh\u00f3. Nh\u01b0 Zimbabwe ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n. N\u0103m 2008, qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ee9ng ch\u1ecbu t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00ean t\u1edbi h\u00e0ng tri\u1ec7u ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m. Gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 t\u0103ng […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[24,22],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3349"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3349"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3349\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3351,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3349\/revisions\/3351"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}