{"id":2623,"date":"2020-03-19T00:50:25","date_gmt":"2020-03-19T00:50:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/?p=2623"},"modified":"2020-03-19T00:52:37","modified_gmt":"2020-03-19T00:52:37","slug":"kien-thuc-co-ban-ve-suy-thoai-kinh-te-can-biet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/?p=2623","title":{"rendered":"KI\u1ebeN TH\u1ee8C C\u01a0 B\u1ea2N V\u1ec0 SUY THO\u00c1I KINH T\u1ebe C\u1ea6N BI\u1ebeT"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, \u0110\u1ee9c – \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 V\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c Anh \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111ang tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e0 suy tho\u00e1i, ngay c\u1ea3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi virus t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 0% trong qu\u00fd IV n\u0103m 2019. Trung Qu\u1ed1c, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn th\u1ee9 hai th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi – \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 n\u01a1i b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch, c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 suy tho\u00e1i trong qu\u00fd \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean – l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua.
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1. Suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 g\u00ec?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n GDP th\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m trong th\u1eddi gian 2 ho\u1eb7c h\u01a1n 2 qu\u00fd li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp trong n\u0103m.<\/span><\/p>\n

C\u1ee5c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kinh t\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c gia NBER l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a suy tho\u00e1i theo\u00a0m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn kh\u00e1c: xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 GDP hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp.<\/span><\/p>\n

Qu\u1ef9 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf IMF\u00a0xem x\u00e9t m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a suy tho\u00e1i tr\u00ean quy m\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, bao g\u1ed3m:\u00a0gi\u1ea3m GDP b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m trong s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n, ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Suy tho\u00e1i l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi?<\/strong>
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\u0110\u00fang. K\u1ebft th\u00fac m\u1ed7i chu k\u1ef3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng s\u1ebd c\u00f3 suy tho\u00e1i, v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.\u00a0C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 khi suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf x\u1ea3y ra, n\u00f3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i bao l\u00e2u v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e2u.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. \u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t suy tho\u00e1i?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u00e1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 S\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn (great moderation). \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i – kho\u1ea3ng 25 n\u0103m tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb gi\u1eefa nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1980 – sau th\u1eddi gian \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e2u d\u00e0i n\u00e0y s\u1ebd c\u00f3 suy tho\u00e1i.<\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00f3 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m cho r\u1eb1ng suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf th\u1eddi hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd nh\u01b0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh – m\u1ed9t nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 suy tho\u00e1i c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1970 v\u00e0 1980 – ho\u1eb7c m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a t\u00edch lu\u1ef9 tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i 2007-2009.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u – c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf vi\u1ec7c \u0111i l\u1ea1i, \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p, h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n th\u1ec3 thao v\u00e0 khi\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng lao d\u1ed1c t\u1ef1 do – ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng g\u00e2y ra m\u1ed9t c\u00fa s\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Covid-19 s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u?<\/strong>
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C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ea1i Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v\u00e0 Morgan Stanley tin v\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3. V\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c tranh lu\u1eadn kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 c\u00f3 suy tho\u00e1i hay kh\u00f4ng n\u1eefa, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 suy tho\u00e1i bao l\u00e2u, nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e2u.<\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, \u0110\u1ee9c, Ph\u00e1p v\u00e0 \u00dd \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb thu h\u1eb9p ho\u1eb7c b\u1ecb \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi virus b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t, v\u00e0 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 3, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 suy tho\u00e1i h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7. Suy tho\u00e1i c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n. Khi virus l\u00e2y lan, m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd r\u01a1i v\u00e0o v\u00f2ng lu\u1ea9n qu\u1ea9n khi v\u1eeba b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i trong n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i gi\u1ea3m, b\u1edfi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c r\u01a1i v\u00e0o suy tho\u00e1i.<\/span><\/p>\n

IMF ch\u1ec9 ghi nh\u1eadn 4 cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u b\u1eaft t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1960, so v\u1edbi 11 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh \u1edf M\u1ef9 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn II theo NBER.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. Li\u1ec7u Covid-19 c\u00f3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i \u1edf M\u1ef9?<\/strong>
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C\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf tin r\u1eb1ng: chu k\u1ef3 r\u1ed9ng g\u1ea7n 11 n\u0103m c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 s\u1eafp k\u1ebft th\u00fac. Nhi\u1ec1u chuy\u00ean gia d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd suy tho\u00e1i trong qu\u00fd 2.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c m\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng – \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c trong ng\u00e0nh v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i ho\u1eb7c ng\u00e0nh kh\u00e1ch s\u1ea1n. C\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9, chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"H\u00e3y<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ai c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1edbi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean.\u00a0B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Hoa K\u1ef3, Steven Mnuchin, cho bi\u1ebft v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 15\/3 r\u1eb1ng \u00f4ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch Covid-19 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m ch\u1eadm s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng khi\u1ebfn n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o suy tho\u00e1i.<\/span><\/p>\n

6. Khi n\u00e0o ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd bi\u1ebft l\u00e0 c\u00f3 suy tho\u00e1i hay kh\u00f4ng?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ngay c\u1ea3 khi ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 suy tho\u00e1i ngay b\u00e2y gi\u1edd , c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f2n v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng n\u1eefa m\u1edbi c\u00f3 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c.\u00a0NBER th\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1ea5t kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn khi n\u00e0o suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ea5y r\u00f5 trong c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, cho d\u00f9 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 n\u00e0o.<\/span><\/p>\n

7. \u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a suy tho\u00e1i?<\/strong>
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