{"id":1452,"date":"2019-12-04T03:06:20","date_gmt":"2019-12-04T03:06:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/?p=1452"},"modified":"2019-12-11T12:34:36","modified_gmt":"2019-12-11T12:34:36","slug":"ban-nghi-gi-ve-cac-ly-thuyet-ve-dau-tu-dang-hien-hanh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/?p=1452","title":{"rendered":"B\u1ea0N NGH\u0128 G\u00cc V\u1ec0 C\u00c1C L\u00dd THUY\u1ebeT V\u1ec0 \u0110\u1ea6U T\u01af \u0110ANG HI\u1ec6N H\u00c0NH"},"content":{"rendered":"

Khi nh\u1eafc \u0111\u1ebfn\u00a0\u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong><\/a>, s\u1ebd th\u1eadt thi\u1ebfu s\u00f3t n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp nh\u1eefng l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft ra \u0111\u1eddi nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch cho nh\u1eefng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Hai tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t Ph\u1ed1 Wall \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n chia b\u1edfi l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3: m\u1ed9t b\u00ean nh\u1ea5t m\u1ef1c \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i th\u00ec tin r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i. \u0110\u00e2y ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n chia c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n. T\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kh\u00e1c c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch v\u00e0 g\u00e2y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 chi ph\u1ed1i h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

1. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 (Efficient Market Hypothesis)<\/strong><\/p>\n

R\u1ea5t \u00edt ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 trung l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 (EMH). B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tin t\u01b0\u1edfng 100% v\u00e0o n\u00f3 v\u00e0 tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng; ho\u1eb7c gh\u00e9t n\u00f3 v\u00e0 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p.<\/span><\/p>\n

EMH ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft tinh v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh m\u1ecdi th\u00f4ng tin v\u1ec1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00f3. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n x\u1ea3y ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00f3. B\u1edfi v\u00ec t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn, m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 EMH n\u00ean s\u1edf h\u1eefu m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 thu l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng chung c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i EMH \u0111\u00e3 l\u1ea5y Warren Buffett v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng kh\u00e1c l\u00e0m v\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh – nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ecm ra m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 h\u1eddi trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng chung.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft Nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc 50% (Fifty \u2013 Percent Principle)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc 50% d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan s\u00e1t s\u1ebd tr\u1ea3i qua s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ebfn hai ph\u1ea7n ba trong gi\u00e1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng l\u00ean. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111ang c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng v\u00e0 t\u0103ng 20%, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng 10% tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan, v\u00ec h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 mua v\u00e0 b\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, v\u00ec n\u00f3 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u00e2y ra b\u1edfi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00f3ng v\u1ed9i mong mu\u1ed1n thu v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn s\u1edbm \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh b\u1ecb cu\u1ed1n v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a xu h\u01b0\u1edbng sau n\u00e0y. N\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 50% thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1, \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u s\u1ebd nhanh ch\u00f3ng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft k\u1ebb ng\u1ed1c h\u01a1n (Greater Fool Theory)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Thuy\u1ebft k\u1ebb ng\u1ed1c h\u01a1n cho bi\u1ebft b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thu l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1eebng n\u00e0o v\u1eabn c\u00f2n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t k\u1ebb ng\u1ed1c h\u01a1n b\u1ea1n s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng tr\u1ea3 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 cao h\u01a1n cho kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea1n v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm ti\u1ec1n t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao, mi\u1ec5n l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng tr\u1ea3 nhi\u1ec1u ti\u1ec1n h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 mua n\u00f3 t\u1eeb b\u1ea1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, nh\u1eefng k\u1ebb ngu ng\u1ed1c d\u1ea7n bi\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1edf n\u00ean qu\u00e1 n\u00f3ng. \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 theo thuy\u1ebft k\u1ebb ng\u1ed1c h\u01a1n t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 l\u00e0 b\u1ecf qua vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1, b\u00e1o c\u00e1o thu nh\u1eadp v\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kh\u00e1c. B\u1ecf qua d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u0169ng nguy hi\u1ec3m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c ch\u00fa \u00fd qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o n\u00f3, v\u00e0 v\u00ec v\u1eady nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ecb g\u00e1n l\u00e0 “k\u1ebb ng\u1ed1c h\u01a1n” th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb b\u1ecf l\u1ea1i sau khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n t\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft l\u00f4 l\u1ebb (Odd Lot Theory)<\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft l\u00f4 l\u1ebb s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n c\u00e1c l\u00f4 l\u1ebb – kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu nh\u1ecf do c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n n\u1eafm gi\u1eef – nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m mua v\u00e0o c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 theo l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft l\u00f4 l\u1ebb mua v\u00e0o khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u1ecf b\u00e1n ra h\u1ebft. Gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u1ecf th\u01b0\u1eddng ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh sai.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft l\u00f4 l\u1ebb l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed1i l\u1eadp d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt r\u1ea5t \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n – \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00f4 l\u1ebb b\u00e1n ra. S\u1ef1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 theo l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c anh ta c\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u0103n b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty m\u00e0 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi hay ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 mua v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch m\u00f9 qu\u00e1ng.<\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u1ecf c\u00f3 l\u00fac \u0111\u00fang, c\u00f3 l\u00fac sai; v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00f4 l\u1ebb xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ea5p v\u1edbi kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00f4 l\u1ebb b\u00e1n ra k\u00e8m theo r\u1ee7i ro cao. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n th\u01b0\u1eddng linh \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 l\u1edbn, v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi h\u01a1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng tin t\u1ee9c nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3, kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00f4 l\u1ebb th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o cho vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n th\u00e1o quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t sai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u1ecf.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng (Prospect Theory)<\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng c\u00f2n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t t\u00ean g\u1ecdi kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 “l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft ng\u1ea1i thua l\u1ed7”. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i v\u00e0 l\u1ed7 l\u00e0 sai l\u1ec7ch, b\u1edfi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec1u s\u1ee3 m\u1ea5t m\u00e1t h\u01a1n l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00edch l\u1ec7 khi thu v\u1ec1. N\u1ebfu m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn hai tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kh\u00e1c nhau, h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ch\u1ecdn tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng m\u00e0 cho r\u1eb1ng \u00edt c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i k\u1ebft th\u00fac trong thua l\u1ed7, thay v\u00ec tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng mang l\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u01a1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed b\u1ea1n cung c\u1ea5p cho m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi hai kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n mang l\u1ea1i 5% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m trong 3 n\u0103m li\u1ec1n, v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n mang l\u1ea1i 12% (n\u0103m 1), m\u1ea5t 2,5% (n\u0103m 2) v\u00e0 mang l\u1ea1i 6% (n\u0103m 3).nh\u01b0 v\u1eady sau 3 n\u0103m th\u00ec ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n 2 t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u00f3 ph\u1ea7n cao h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi s\u1ebd ch\u1ecdn kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u00e3i 5% (1 n\u0103m) v\u00ec anh ta \u0111\u00e3 quan tr\u1ecdng h\u00f3a m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch phi l\u00fd v\u00e0o t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb, trong khi b\u1ecf qua c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n. Trong v\u00ed d\u1ee5 tr\u00ean, c\u1ea3 hai l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn thay th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec1u t\u1ea1o ra t\u1ed5ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn r\u00f2ng sau ba n\u0103m.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i r\u1ee7i ro\/l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t b\u1ee9c tranh r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro m\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u1ea3i g\u00e1nh ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn mong mu\u1ed1n, l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng cho ch\u00fang ta bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng r\u1ea5t \u00edt ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 l\u00fd tr\u00ed khi b\u1ecb c\u1ea3m x\u00fac chi ph\u1ed1i.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p h\u00f3a r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng s\u1ebd nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u00e1ng th\u1ea5t v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u0111\u1ee7 can \u0111\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 ra.<\/span><\/p>\n

6. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd (Rational Expectations Theory)<\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng theo nh\u1eefng g\u00ec h\u1ecd mong \u0111\u1ee3i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ee3p l\u00fd trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. B\u1edfi v\u1eady, m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, chi ti\u00eau, v.v. theo nh\u1eefng g\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3 tin t\u01b0\u1edfng, m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ee3p l\u00fd, s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00f3, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t l\u1eddi ti\u00ean tri t\u1ef1 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh (self-fulfilling prophecy) v\u00e0 g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00e1 quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi kinh t\u1ebf, nh\u01b0ng nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u1eabn c\u00f2n ho\u00e0i nghi v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i \u00edch th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 n\u00f3 \u0111em l\u1ea1i<\/strong>. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu s\u1ebd t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch mua n\u00f3, h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 khi\u1ebfn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng gi\u00e1. Giao d\u1ecbch t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. M\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p, mua n\u00f3 v\u00e0 ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00edch h\u1ee3p. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh v\u1ec1 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd: N\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd h\u00f3a m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng cho ch\u00fang ta bi\u1ebft b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 th\u1ee9 g\u00ec.<\/span><\/p>\n

7. Thuy\u1ebft t\u1ed5ng kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng (Short Inyterest Theory)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Thuy\u1ebft t\u1ed5ng kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng cao l\u00e0 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u cho s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu tho\u1ea1t nh\u00ecn th\u00ec d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u01a1 s\u1edf. Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng cao t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 s\u1eafp x\u1ea3y ra.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u00fd do c\u1ee7a hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u00ean l\u00e0 b\u1edfi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng th\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u00e2n, h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0n chuy\u00ean gia v\u00e0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u k\u1ef9 l\u01b0\u1ee1ng t\u1eebng m\u1ea9u d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 sai. H\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00fang \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, nh\u01b0ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng do b\u1ecb thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u00e1n, cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i t\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng v\u1ec7 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu m\u00e0 h\u1ecd thi\u1ebfu. Do \u0111\u00f3, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c mua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u00e1n ng\u1eafn bao tr\u00f9m v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu l\u00ean cao.<\/span><\/p>\n

8. G\u00f3c nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a TVTinvest<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00e1c l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft n\u00ean tr\u00ean m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 r\u1ea5t h\u1eefu \u00edch cho b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ai v\u00ec d\u00f9 sao n\u00f3 c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 v\u00e0 \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 t\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 c\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. N\u00f3 \u0111ang t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 n\u00f3 v\u1eabn c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m h\u1ee3p l\u00fd c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n nh\u1edb r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. Trong nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, m\u1ed9t l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ch\u1ec9 gi\u1eef \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u00fang n\u1eefa. Trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e0 h\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 duy nh\u1ea5t<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0* V\u1edbi t\u00f4i \u0111ang tin t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n theo L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o T\u00f4i lu\u00f4n t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p, mua n\u00f3 v\u00e0 ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 v\u00e0 mua v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00edch h\u1ee3p b\u00e1n ra v\u00e0 thu l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u1edf m\u1ee9c m\u00e0 m\u00ecnh cho l\u00e0 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

*C\u00f2n b\u1ea1n ngh\u0129 g\u00ec? B\u1ea1n th\u1ea5y l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0o \u0111ang ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi m\u00ecnh? h\u00e3y n\u00eau quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh c\u00f9ng chia s\u1ebb v\u1edbi m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Khi nh\u1eafc \u0111\u1ebfn\u00a0\u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, s\u1ebd th\u1eadt thi\u1ebfu s\u00f3t n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp nh\u1eefng l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft ra \u0111\u1eddi nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch cho nh\u1eefng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Hai tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t Ph\u1ed1 Wall \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n chia b\u1edfi l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3: m\u1ed9t b\u00ean nh\u1ea5t m\u1ef1c \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i th\u00ec tin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1697,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[24,21],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1452"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1452"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1452\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1827,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1452\/revisions\/1827"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1697"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tvtinvest.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}